Black Book Says Pickup Trucks and Full Size CUVs Will See Strong Retention Values During Next 12 to 24 Months

Black Book’s Lender Solutions division analyzed historic vehicle segment data to develop retention level projections for the next 12 to 24 months. Key projections for this period include strong retention values for trucks in the Compact, Mid-Size, and Full-Size Pickup categories, which have had strong values during the last 12 months, according to Black Book.

Next, Full-Size CUVs, examples of which include the GMC Acadia, Buick Enclave, Ford Flex, and Cadillac SRX, will outperform average retention levels, according to Black Book, as buyers are replacing Full-Size SUVs with vehicles from this segment that is low in supply and a less competitive segment than SUVs.

In terms of categories that Black Book predicts won’t do well during the next 12 – 24 months, the company projects that Entry-Level Cars and Minivans will underperform compared to average retention levels. Vehicles in the Entry-Level Car segment include Chevrolet Aveo, Honda Fit, Toyota Yaris, and Hyundai Accent. Black Book said that greater fuel efficiency in the Mid-Size segments means customers are more interested in that category, and for Minivans, the popularity of crossover segments is also pulling away interest.

The Premium Sporty Car segment is one that Black Book projects will see average retention levels over the next 12 to 24 months.

The chart below shows average retention values during the last 12 months and projected retention values during the next 12 to 24 months.

SegmentAverage of past 12 month retentionAverage of 12m retentionAverage of 24m retention
Full-Size Pickup 95.22% 80.47% 68.85%
Mid-Size Pickup 94.97% 81.55% 70.13%
Compact Pickup 94.78% 81.73% 71.09%
Full-Size Van Cargo 90.97% 76.07% 62.52%
Compact SUV 90.83% 79.88% 67.73%
Full-Size Vans Wagon (Pass) 90.31% 77.30% 63.63%
Full-Size SUV 88.52% 79.19% 65.66%
Mini Van Cargo 87.95% 78.65% 64.31%
Mid-Size SUV 87.76% 80.49% 66.61%
Luxury SUV 86.87% 80.56% 67.28%
Sporty Car 86.31% 80.85% 68.50%
Compact CUV 85.76% 81.05% 67.86%
Mid-Size CUV 85.37% 80.38% 67.47%
Luxury Level Car 85.22% 80.21% 66.48%
Premium Sporty Car 85.06% 82.08% 69.28%
Near Luxury Car 84.10% 80.03% 66.63%
Full-Size Car 84.01% 81.04% 68.41%
Prestige Luxury Car 83.31% 79.90% 65.74%
Mini Van Wagon (Pass) 83.22% 78.04% 63.90%
Full-Size CUV 82.95% 82.60% 69.47%
Upper Mid-Size Car 81.95% 80.90% 67.71%
Entry Level Car 81.23% 77.91% 64.75%
Compact Car 80.86% 80.62% 67.62%
Entry Mid-Size Car 78.22% 80.02% 66.36%
Grand Total 85.90% 80.25% 67.19%

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