ADESA: New Vehicle Incentives Pressure Used Pricing

In November, trucks continued to drive overall average wholesale prices upward while car price softening more directly reflects supply growth for the used vehicle market in general.

A new threat to used vehicle prices seems to be arising from increased new vehicle incentives, which have been relatively benign through this cycle of price softening, but which Adesa warned might become more of a factor going forward as a result of plateauing new vehicle sales, according to the latest Kontos Kommentary from ADESA Chief Economist Tom Kontos.

According to ADESA Analytical Services’ monthly analysis of Wholesale Used Vehicle Prices by Vehicle Model Class, wholesale used vehicle prices in November averaged $10,678 — up 1.4% compared to October and up 2.3% relative to November 2015. However, this result was largely driven by truck prices, which rose 2.2% sequentially and 5.2% annually; prices for the car segments fell 0.3% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year.

Average wholesale prices for used vehicles remarketed by manufacturers were down 0.6% month-over-month but up 4.9% year-over-year, according to ADESA.

Prices for fleet/lease consignors were up 1.3% sequentially and up 2% annually, according to ADESA. Dealer consignors registered a 0.7% average price decrease versus October and a 1.9% decrease relative to November 2015.

Wholesale Used Vehicle Price Trends          
  Average Prices ($/Unit)     Latest Month Versus:  
  Nov-16 Oct-16 Nov-15 Prior Month Prior Year
Total All Vehicles $10,678 $10,530 $10,443 1.4% 2.3%
Total Cars $8,477 $8,504 $8,843 -0.3% -4.1%
Compact Car $6,316 $6,388 $6,759 -1.1% -6.6%
Midsize Car $7,449 $7,362 $7,775 1.2% -4.2%
Fullsize Car $7,660 $7,506 $7,912 2.1% -3.2%
Luxury Car $13,200 $13,425 $13,610 -1.7% -3.0%
Sporty Car $13,061 $13,135 $13,427 -0.6% -2.7%
Total Trucks $12,732 $12,464 $12,100 2.2% 5.2%
Mini Van $8,627 $8,294 $7,981 4.0% 8.1%
Fullsize Van $12,322 $12,717 $12,195 -3.1% 1.0%
Compact SUV/CUV $10,446 $10,487 $10,412 -0.4% 0.3%
Midsize SUV/CUV $11,478 $11,143 $10,531 3.0% 9.0%
Fullsize SUV/CUV $14,617 $13,725 $12,726 6.5% 14.9%
Luxury SUV/CUV $18,569 $18,313 $18,311 1.4% 1.4%
Compact Pickup $8,750 $8,426 $8,210 3.8% 6.6%
Fullsize Pickup $15,552 $15,225 $15,052 2.1% 3.3%

This Kontos Kommentary analysis is based on nearly six million annual sales transactions from more than 150 of the largest U.S. wholesale auto auctions, including those of ADESA as well as other auction companies. ADESA Analytical Services segregates these transactions to study trends by vehicle model class.

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