Six-City Survey: December Rates Up $4.83 over Dec 2012

With the help of Jim Tennant of The Tennant Group and Michael Meyer of Rate-Highway Inc., we are conducting rate surveys on a weekly basis and providing analysis and comments where appropriate. We publish this monthly recap in our electronic edition and more comprehensive looks in the print editions.

ICAR Average Rate Quotes - Monthly Averages

Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12 
29.22 30.47 53.51 64.05 29.58 39.25 30.53 42.94 55.52 BOS
19.48 16.04 31.34 41.24 21.46 25.50 36.89 40.57 69.60 MIA
64.10 60.23 59.81 57.60 58.06 62.46 64.17 67.84 70.08 ORD
75.86 52.69 40.42 36.89 33.86 39.99 39.80 41.00 40.31 HOU
34.14 30.37 40.33 51.55 36.26 35.41 29.00 34.89 44.57 SEA
29.17 27.12 36.99 46.23 24.76 28.81 25.55 34.44 42.88 LAX
41.99 36.16 43.73 49.59 34.00 38.57 37.66 43.61 53.83 Avge
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13  
37.06 38.30 64.36 79.53 42.20 39.73 32.21 31.40 72.92 BOS
26.49 22.29 43.08 38.80 23.62 40.62 53.89 56.54 82.92 MIA
53.75 66.26 78.85 73.41 65.77 67.26 46.75 29.95 43.70 ORD
57.26 61.59 59.74 65.59 62.26 69.25 67.19 56.85 67.09 HOU
38.84 51.36 65.42 69.90 61.19 43.07 30.50 27.47 43.39 SEA
35.08 33.10 41.90 47.68 32.57 34.01 29.78 33.16 41.92 LAX
41.42 45.48 58.89 62.48 47.93 48.99 43.39 39.23 58.65 Avge

Year to Year Comparison

          
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec  
7.84 7.83 10.86 15.47 12.62 0.49 1.68 (11.54) 17.40 BOS
7.02 6.25 11.74 (2.44) 2.16 15.12 17.00 15.97 13.31 MIA
(10.34) 6.03 19.04 15.81 7.70 4.80 (17.43) (37.90) (26.38) ORD
(18.60) 8.90 19.31 28.70 28.40 29.26 27.39 15.85 26.78 HOU
4.70 20.98 25.09 18.35 24.92 7.66 1.51 (7.42) (1.18) SEA
5.91 5.97 4.92 1.45 7.81 5.21 4.23 (1.28) (0.97) LAX
(0.58) 9.33 15.16 12.89 13.94 10.42 5.73 (4.39) 4.83 Avge

Last month, we observed that 12 months of year-over-year rate quote increases came to an end, with November 2013 $4.39 lower than the same month in 2012. As demonstrated in the graph below and tables above, December 2013 rebounded — up $4.83 over December 2012.

Individual cities were very inconsistent. Houston was up $26.78 in December and Chicago was down a similar amount at $26.38. But Boston and Miami were up substantially while Seattle and Los Angeles were down marginally. Therefore, the six-city average of a $4.38 increase did not illustrate a good picture of any one city or the overall industry.

It appears that local situations such as weather and abnormal demand or supply were more significant than overall industry trends. Statisticians sometimes talk of a man drowning in a river that averages 6 inches deep. This month seems to fit that analogy.

Over the last year, individual cities — with exception of Chicago — were quite consistent. All five airport rates were up for the calendar year 2013. It should be noted that Chicago had a very large run-up in 2012 and fell back slightly in 2013, but still had a healthy average quote of $58.90.

 20122013Yr over Yr
BOS 39.42 47.30 7.88
MIA 36.09 45.49 9.40
ORD 60.29 58.90 (1.39)
HOU 48.64 59.76 11.12
SEA 37.80 47.16 9.36
LAX 33.06 37.89 4.83
Avge 42.55 49.42 6.87

We are gathering rate quotes for the top 50 U.S. airports and are planning to replace the six-city sample with the larger one in June 2014 — when we will have 13 months, allowing us to do a year-over-year comparison. The larger sample should reduce or eliminate the effect of a major event in one city on the overall average.

Rate data provided by Rate-Highway, a leading provider of revenue management services for the auto rental industry. Rates are an average of aggregator/OTA rates for all vendors present in the markets listed on the date of the survey. These tables and graph show the average of all base rate quotes per day for an ICAR at the six airports shown, for arrivals 15 to 21 days ahead of the date of the survey, for two- and seven-day rentals.
Rate data provided by Rate-Highway, a leading provider of revenue management services for the auto rental industry. Rates are an average of aggregator/OTA rates for all vendors present in the markets listed on the date of the survey. These tables and graph show the average of all base rate quotes per day for an ICAR at the six airports shown, for arrivals 15 to 21 days ahead of the date of the survey, for two- and seven-day rentals.

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