It’s no secret that average wholesale prices increased in every model class comparing 2019 to 2022. Find out which classes saw the biggest gains and why, along with prognostications for supply,...

It’s no secret that average wholesale prices increased in every model class comparing 2019 to 2022. Find out which classes saw the biggest gains and why, along with prognostications for supply, mileage, and pricing moving forward.  

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Vehicle prices can be as temperamental as the weather, but Auto Rental News gathered data from the last few years to make some sense of recent trends. Here's what we found out.

Wholesale Used Vehicle Price Trends

  Average Prices Per Unit Average Prices Per Unit Average Prices Per Unit Y/Y Variance Y/Y Variance
  2022 2021 2019 vs. 2021 vs. 2019
All Vehicles $16,251 $16,251 $11,185 14.2% 45.3%
Total Cars $12,151 $10,645 $8,586 14.1% 14.1%
Compact Car $8,998 $7,580 $6,579 18.7% 36.8%
Midsize Car $10,531 $8,821 $7,437 19.4% 41.6%
Full-Size Car $10,673 $9,281 $7,844 15.0% 36.1%
Luxury Car $18,824 $16,930 $13,244 11.2% 42.1%
Sporty Car $21,331 $20,461 $14,280 11.2% 49.4%
Total Trucks $19,109 $16,898 $13,348 13.1% 43.2%
Minivan $12,031 $9,540 $8,355 26.1% 44.0%
Full-Size Van $24,033 $18,144 $13,235 32.5% 81.6%
Compact SUV/CUV $14,481 $12,622 $10,598 14.7% 36.6%
Midsize SUV/CUV $17,288 $14,957 $12,308 15.6% 40.5%
Full-Size SUV/CUV $21,745 $19,372 $14,507 12.2% 49.9%
Luxury SUV/CUV $27,823 $24,776 $18,565 12.3% 49.9%
Compact Pickup $19,684 $16,598 $10,671 18.6% 84.5%
Full-Size Pickup $23,177 $21,680 $16,650 6.9% 39.2%

Source: ADESA Analytical Services

ADESA’s analysis of auction prices summarized in this table shows that despite some softening in prices since the spring, wholesale prices on a year-to-date basis are above the prior year and pre-pandemic levels. The full-size van and minivan segments continue to lead the price increases, mainly due to continued lack of supply.

Percent Change in Average Wholesale Price by Model Class – 2022 vs. 2019

Source: ADESA Analytical Services

Source: ADESA Analytical Services

This graph based on ADESA auction data illustrates that the strong used vehicle market had elevated prices for all vehicle segments by unprecedented rates since the pandemic began.

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

Source: Manheim

Source: Manheim

Through October 2022, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index had declined for six straight months, though declines moderated moving into fall. The October Index stood at 200.0, which was down 10.6% from a year ago — though the comparison was to record highs. “2022 has been the year of giving back some of the big 2021 increases when it comes to wholesale used-vehicle values,” said Jonathan Smoke, Cox Automotive’s chief economist. Smoke expects to finish the year down nearly 14% in December. “We haven’t seen declines like this since the onset of the pandemic and the beginning of the Great Recession.”

Overall Sales Outlook – Vehicle Sales by Year and Type, Actual and Forecast

Source: Cox Automotive

Source: Cox Automotive

For retail and fleet sales, the first half of 2022 was still hungover from the chip shortages and supply chain issues that plagued 2021. While the second half saw loosening supply flowing to dealers’ lots and into fleets, forecasts call for only a slight improvement over 2021’s light-vehicle sales total of 15.4 million units. Supply chain issues will continue to improve in 2023, though retail sales will remain constrained as elevated prices and higher financing costs continue to impact affordability. This could allow fleets to gain incremental share of the total sales pie.

Total Wholesale Supply: Off-Rental

Source: Manheim

Source: Manheim

As sales into rental fleets in 2022 only marginally improved from 2021, off-rental supply in 2023 will remain constricted — at levels that haven’t been this low in 10 years. 

Average Auction Price Rental Risk Units

Source: Manheim

Source: Manheim

If you thought 2021 broke the record for wholesale average prices on auction prices for risk units, car rental consignors enjoyed new heights in 2022. However, by October 2022, the dizzying year-over-year comparisons had cooled. This moderating trend will continue into 2023, though prices should easily best the pre-pandemic (2019) baseline.

Average Mileage Rental Risk Units

Source: Manheim

Source: Manheim

The second and third quarters of 2021 shattered records for miles on de-fleeted rental units at auction. In 2022, mileage had deflated, but month over month was still higher than 2019.

Get even more industry insight and market data in our 2023 Fact Book!

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Staff Writer

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Our team of enterprising editors brings years of experience covering the fleet industry. We offer a deep understanding of trends and the ever-evolving landscapes we cover in fleet, trucking, and transportation.  

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