With the help of Jim Tennant of The Tennant Group and Michael Meyer of Rate-Highway Inc., we are conducting rate surveys on a weekly basis and providing analysis and comments where appropriate. We publish this monthly recap in our electronic edition and more comprehensive looks in the print editions.
ICAR Average Rate Quotes - Monthly Averages
Year to Year Comparison
Last month, we observed that 12 months of year-over-year rate quote increases came to an end, with November 2013 $4.39 lower than the same month in 2012. As demonstrated in the graph below and tables above, December 2013 rebounded — up $4.83 over December 2012.
Individual cities were very inconsistent. Houston was up $26.78 in December and Chicago was down a similar amount at $26.38. But Boston and Miami were up substantially while Seattle and Los Angeles were down marginally. Therefore, the six-city average of a $4.38 increase did not illustrate a good picture of any one city or the overall industry.
It appears that local situations such as weather and abnormal demand or supply were more significant than overall industry trends. Statisticians sometimes talk of a man drowning in a river that averages 6 inches deep. This month seems to fit that analogy.
Over the last year, individual cities — with exception of Chicago — were quite consistent. All five airport rates were up for the calendar year 2013. It should be noted that Chicago had a very large run-up in 2012 and fell back slightly in 2013, but still had a healthy average quote of $58.90.
|2012||2013||Yr over Yr|
We are gathering rate quotes for the top 50 U.S. airports and are planning to replace the six-city sample with the larger one in June 2014 — when we will have 13 months, allowing us to do a year-over-year comparison. The larger sample should reduce or eliminate the effect of a major event in one city on the overall average.