Analysis: The actions of the UAW will reverberate through the larger auto business, but nowhere near what was experienced in April 2020. Sales into fleet could suffer in 4Q if a strike is wide and persists. Rental car companies may return to the used car market like they did in 2021 and 2022, driving prices higher.
With sales slightly stronger than expected, tight supply, and prices at about 6% below last year, these factors are expected to prevent any substantial decline in wholesale prices through year-end.
The last several months have closely followed 2019 levels, the last normal year, which means dealers are balancing their inventory to the sales rate and keeping days’ supply steady even as total supply improves.
Fleet sales have helped underpin the market improvement so far this year. Forecasts suggest fleet sales could increase by more than 40% year over year,
Days' supply increased due to a slight weakening in sales toward month-end. Despite a decline in the average listing price, it remained above $47,000.
While inventory is up from 2022 levels, it remains low by historical standards. Meanwhile, the estimated typical monthly payment for a new vehicle declined to $754 from the peak of $791 in Dec. 2022.
Prices usually decline in the first two weeks of April, but in each of the last two years prices increased substantially during these same weeks, the Manheim Index shows.
Days’ supply by end of November was 77% higher than at the same time a year ago and the highest since March 2021. While inventory is up from recent levels, it remains low by historical standards.
All eight major market segments again saw seasonally adjusted prices that were lower year over year last month, with compact cars showing the smallest decline.
Declines in Manheim Market Report prices, days' supply, and average daily sales conversion rates are following typical patterns for November.
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