Conditions have shifted to favoring buyers; but with tight supply, the market is close to a balance between buyers and sellers.
After closing out 2022 with the longest-running, sharpest decline over a single year, wholesale used vehicle prices have risen in 2023.
All eight major market segments again saw seasonally adjusted prices that were lower year over year last month, with compact cars showing the smallest decline.
Higher interest rates are likely hurting used-vehicle demand because consumers can’t afford the higher monthly payments.
Only three of eight major market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were higher year over year in September. The full-year Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index forecast is expected to finish the year down nearly 14% YOY, up from the second quarter’s revised forecast of a 6% decline.
See how Cox Automotive scored when its earlier outlook met the economic and market realities so far this year.
Analysis: The Fed wants to see less credit flowing as part of their plan to induce pain, and it's working. Are they taking enough time to see the effects of their moves before doubling down?
NAAA Remarketing Outlook: High vehicle prices, low inventory, solid resale values, and an enigmatic economy are taking the normality out of used and new vehicle sales.
Wholesale prices had been moving downward for most of the year and decreased 4% in August from July, widening the divergence with retail prices.
Year to date, the total used market is on pace to finish the year down more than 12% recorded in 2021.
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