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Analysts are expecting a measured movement through December and the year, which should reach the January forecast for a 4% year-over-year decline.
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Over the last two weeks, Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices declined an aggregate of 1.9%, which was more than the normal decline of 1% for the time of year.
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October’s price decline is eerily similar to last October’s 2.2% drop, and this was not unexpected as the market remains balanced.
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September auction sales bolstered prices through the channel, but wholesale is at a crossroads, mainly from concerns about the UAW strike possibly slowing new retail sales and moving buyers into the used market.
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With sales slightly stronger than expected, tight supply, and prices at about 6% below last year, these factors are expected to prevent any substantial decline in wholesale prices through year-end.
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The conversion rate indicates that the first 15 days of August saw buyers with more bargaining power for this time of year.
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The Manheim Market Report values saw above-average declines that were relatively consistent, with values declining almost 4% in the last four weeks.
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Declines in Manheim Market Report prices, days' supply, and average daily sales conversion rates are following typical patterns for November.
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All eight major market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were lower year over year in October.
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Only three of eight major market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were higher year over year in September. The full-year Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index forecast is expected to finish the year down nearly 14% YOY, up from the second quarter’s revised forecast of a 6% decline.
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