AAA Projects Thanksgiving Travel to Increase 1.4 Percent from Last Year
Fewer Americans will travel by air this year due to budget concerns, reduced airline capacity and added charges.
AAA projected 38.4 million Americans will be traveling 50 miles or more away from home over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend; a 1.4 percent increase over last year when 37.8 million traveled.
The number of travelers by automobile is expected to be 33.2 million in 2009 compared to 32.5 million last year; an increase of 2.1 percent. The number of travelers by air is expected be 2.3 million compared to 2.5 million in 2008; a decline of 6.7 percent. The number of those traveling by “other” means, including, trains, watercraft, buses and multiple-modes of transportation, is expected to be 2.9 million compared to 2.8 million last year, an increase of 1.2 percent, AAA said.
Last year, Thanksgiving travel dropped a precipitous 25.2 percent in the wake of the ongoing housing and financial crisis. This year’s expected increase in travel reflects improved consumer confidence from one year ago, better financial market performance and a growing sense among many consumers that the worst of the global economic crisis is behind us, AAA said.
“Although far too many Americans remain unemployed or under other financial stress, AAA’s projected increase in Thanksgiving travel from one year ago is another hopeful sign that economic conditions are stabilizing and improving in some areas. We can also be thankful the gradual recovery we have been seeing in the U.S. travel industry since the start of the summer is continuing,” said Glen MacDonell, AAA’s director of travel services.
Number of Thanksgiving Air Travelers Continues to Decline
Eighty-six percent of Thanksgiving vacationers are expected to travel by automobile, while only six percent say they will go by air. In October, the time when most people make decisions in regards to Thanksgiving travel, average gasoline prices were approximately 54 cents cheaper than they were in October 2008. Despite increases in gasoline prices since October this year, most people will not change their decision to fly verses drive since seat availability becomes more limited and airline ticket prices increase as the holiday approaches.
This year’s decrease in the number of air travelers continues a decade-long trend in which air travel as a percentage of total Thanksgiving travel has declined substantially. Since 2000, the number of Americans traveling by air during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend has dropped an astounding 62 percent. While much of this decrease can be attributed to ongoing economic difficulties, the air travel experience itself has undergone a substantial change since the 1990s with stricter airport security, more frequent flight delays, reduced capacity, added surcharges and fees, all contributing to the decline. Those traveling by “other” means — including trains, watercraft, buses, RVs and multiple modes of travel — are projected to comprise 8 percent of holiday travelers.
AAA Calculates Average Spending and Distance Traveled
Thanksgiving travelers expect to spend approximately $718 per household this upcoming holiday weekend. With the main purpose of Thanksgiving holiday being a special meal with family and friends, it is not surprising that only 15.7 percent of spending will be for accommodations, while 32 percent will be for transportation.
Food and beverage will absorb 21 percent of spending and shopping will account for 16 percent. Entertainment and recreation will account for 10 percent of spending on average. “Other” or miscellaneous spending is five percent.
Thanksgiving travelers will journey an average of 815 miles roundtrip this upcoming holiday weekend. More than one-third (37 percent) of travelers will travel 250 miles or less round trip. Slightly less than one-quarter (24 percent) of weekend travelers will log between 251 and 700 miles. And 38 percent will travel more than 700 miles round trip.
Lower Airfare, Lodging and Rental Car Costs
According to AAA’s Leisure Travel Index — a monitor of pricing in 20 popular cities across the US for hotel and car rentals, as well as 40 pairs of cities for air travel pricing — the lowest average published airfares over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend are expected to decrease four percent from last year to an average of $170 per roundtrip ticket.
Car rental rates are down three percent to an average of $44 per day for a mid-size car versus $45 per day last year.
Rates for AAA Three Diamond lodgings are expected to be 11 percent less than last year with travelers spending an average of $128 per night. Travelers planning to stay at AAA Two Diamond lodgings will pay 13 percent less than last year; an average of $92 per night.
More Rental Operations

U.S. Business Travel Car Rental Rates Forecast to Rise Up to 2%
Improved fleet supply should limit pricing gains in 2026-27, while insurance, repair costs, and softer residual values continue to pressure rental operations, according to Amex GBT.
Read More →
Sixt Revenue Tops $2.4 Billion in First Half of 2026
Sixt’s first-half revenue surpassed $2.4 billion for the first time as demand outpaced fleet growth, lifting utilization and earnings despite weaker consumer sentiment in North America.
Read More →
In Memoriam: Bobby Klyce, Avis Licensee Legend
The longtime Birmingham Avis operator and 2018 Auto Rental News Impact Award recipient was remembered as an advocate for independent licensees and the broader car rental industry.
Read More →How to Build Custom Fleet Tools With AI and Vibe Coding [Webinar]
A new Automotive Fleet webinar explores how fleet managers are using AI and vibe coding to automate routine work and create simple operational tools without traditional programming skills.
Read More →
Car Rental Rates Forecast to Rise 3.6% in 2026 Before Easing in 2027
Car rental rates are projected to rise less than airfares and hotel rates in 2026, then become the only major travel category forecast to decline in 2027, according to projections from GBTA and ALTOUR.
Read More →
Avis Cuts Fleet as Summer Demand Trails Expectations
Avis Budget Group increased second-quarter earnings despite lower Americas revenue and softer-than-expected summer demand. The company also expanded Avis First and advanced its autonomous fleet operations with Waymo.
Read More →
Why Bookings Are Only the Start of the Rental Day
A reservation captures demand. The operating test is whether the business can keep the customer, vehicle, commercial terms, and next action aligned until the rental is closed.
Read More →
This Is the Oldest Car Rental Advertisement You’ll Ever See
This ad for Saunders Drive it Yourself, believed to be the first car rental company in the U.S., was found in an Omaha phone book from 1926.
Read More →
The Desk Upsell Is Costing Operators More Than it Earns
Counter upsells generate revenue, but they can also slow transactions, erode trust, and cost repeat business. Fully inclusive pricing may offer operators a better path to long-term value.
Read More →
U-Save Expands Indian Ocean Presence with New Master Franchise for Mauritius
The franchise has been acquired by Mauritian travel entrepreneur Umarfarooq Omarjee, an established figure in the island's tourism and mobility sector.
Read More →
