Wholesale used vehicle prices increased 0.9% in the first 15 days of October compared to the month of September, bringing the mid-month Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 162.7, a 16.0% increase from October 2019, according to Cox Automotive.

However, non-seasonally adjusted monthly change was down 1.5%, which is in line with what Cox has seen in weekly price trends. Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices experienced a 1.5% cumulative decline over the last two weeks. Over the first 15 days of October, MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to current MMR, was below 100% every day and averaged 99.4%.

The key indicators suggest non-adjusted used vehicle values will continue to decline in the days ahead, Cox said.

On a year-over-year basis, all major market segments saw seasonally adjusted price increases in the first 15 days of October. Luxury cars and pickup trucks outperformed the overall market, while most other major segments underperformed the overall market.

Both retail and wholesale supply have increased modestly in recent weeks, Cox said. Using a rolling seven-day estimate of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data from Cox, used retail supply is close to a normal level at 45 days. Wholesale supply has increased to 27 days for the most recent seven-day period, when normal supply is 23.

Meanwhile, the average price for rental risk units sold at auction in the first 15 days of October was up 4% year-over-year. Rental risk prices were down 6% compared to September. Average mileage for rental risk units in the first half of October (at 56,000 miles) was up 16% compared to a year ago and up 31% month-over-month.