Vehicle prices can be as temperamental as the weather, but Auto Rental News gathered data from the last few years to make some sense of recent trends. Here's what we found out.

Wholesale Used Vehicle Price Trends

Source: ADESA Analytical Services

ADESA’s analysis of auction prices summarized in this table shows that despite some softening in prices since the spring, wholesale prices on a year-to-date basis are above the prior year and pre-pandemic levels. The full-size van and minivan segments continue to lead the price increases, mainly due to continued lack of supply.

Percent Change in Average Wholesale Price by Model Class – 2022 vs. 2019

This graph based on ADESA auction data illustrates that the strong used vehicle market had elevated prices for all vehicle segments by unprecedented rates since the pandemic began.

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

Through October 2022, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index had declined for six straight months, though declines moderated moving into fall. The October Index stood at 200.0, which was down 10.6% from a year ago — though the comparison was to record highs. “2022 has been the year of giving back some of the big 2021 increases when it comes to wholesale used-vehicle values,” said Jonathan Smoke, Cox Automotive’s chief economist. Smoke expects to finish the year down nearly 14% in December. “We haven’t seen declines like this since the onset of the pandemic and the beginning of the Great Recession.”

Overall Sales Outlook – Vehicle Sales by Year and Type, Actual and Forecast

For retail and fleet sales, the first half of 2022 was still hungover from the chip shortages and supply chain issues that plagued 2021. While the second half saw loosening supply flowing to dealers’ lots and into fleets, forecasts call for only a slight improvement over 2021’s light-vehicle sales total of 15.4 million units. Supply chain issues will continue to improve in 2023, though retail sales will remain constrained as elevated prices and higher financing costs continue to impact affordability. This could allow fleets to gain incremental share of the total sales pie.

Total Wholesale Supply: Off-Rental

As sales into rental fleets in 2022 only marginally improved from 2021, off-rental supply in 2023 will remain constricted — at levels that haven’t been this low in 10 years. 

Average Auction Price Rental Risk Units

If you thought 2021 broke the record for wholesale average prices on auction prices for risk units, car rental consignors enjoyed new heights in 2022. However, by October 2022, the dizzying year-over-year comparisons had cooled. This moderating trend will continue into 2023, though prices should easily best the pre-pandemic (2019) baseline.

Average Mileage Rental Risk Units

The second and third quarters of 2021 shattered records for miles on de-fleeted rental units at auction. In 2022, mileage had deflated, but month over month was still higher than 2019.