Related: TSA Records 1.3M Daily Travelers at Height of Holiday Travel
GBTA: Business Travel Full Recovery Expected by 2025
The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) says the financial impact of global travel decline is expected to be 10 times worse than the Great Recession and 9/11. A 21% increase in business travel spending is projected in 2021, mostly at the end of the year.
February 2, 2021
In 2022, the BTI Outlook forecasts further acceleration in business travel, including a significant pickup in group meeting activity and international business travel.
Photo of the 2019 ABLA convention in Sao Paulo, Brazil courtesy of ABLA, the Brazilian Car Rental Association.
2 min to read
The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) released its annual BTI Outlook, a detailed analysis of business travel in 2020, with projections for 2021 and beyond. The BTI Outlook covers business travel spending and growth covering 75 countries across 48 industries.
According to the study, the true global financial impact of COVID-19 began in Q2 2020, resulting in an expected 68% decline (to $738 billion) from April 1, 2020 to the end of the year. Because of the relatively strong pre-COVID first quarter of 2020, global spending on business travel is expected to show a 52% decrease to $694 billion for all of 2020, down from $1.4 trillion in 2019.
GBTA’s BTI Outlook noted that global GDP is expected to have declined -4.4% in 2020, an unprecedented decline when compared to the -0.5% decline experienced during the Great Recession of 2008. Coming into 2020, business travel had grown for 10 consecutive years, with an average growth rate of 5.1% per year.
The impact of COVID-19 on business travel has varied by region, with North America leading the way with a 60% decline for the full year 2020. Western Europe was second at 58%, followed by Eastern Europe (50%), Latin America (45%), Asia Pacific (44%) and Middle East/Africa (39%).
The 2020 business travel spending losses are expected to be 10 times larger than the impact of either 9/11 or the Great Recession of 2008.
Moving to 2021, the BTI Outlook projects a 21% increase in business travel spending. Most of this gain is expected to come at the end of 2021 as vaccinations increase globally and consumer confidence returns.
In 2022, the BTI Outlook forecasts further acceleration in business travel, including a significant pickup in group meeting activity and international business travel.
While annual business travel spending growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2023, it is projected to remain well above historical average rates of growth of 4.6%. By the end of 2024, annual business travel spending is projected to reach approximately $1.4 trillion, nearly equaling the 2019 pre-pandemic revenue peak of $1.43 trillion.
A full recovery to pre-pandemic levels is expected by 2025.
More Rental Operations
Advantage, Sixt Place Among Top Five in Annual Satisfaction Study
While Enterprise and National retain the top spots in JD Power’s 2026 rankings, the latest customer satisfaction results suggest renters can find competitive service beyond the biggest car rental names.
Read More →
The $100,000 Insurance Trap in Exotic Car Rentals
Exotic rental agencies often rely on customers’ personal auto policies to protect six-figure vehicles. But policy language can dramatically change the coverage for vehicles over $100,000 MSRP.
Read More →
The Booking Is Confirmed, But Is Your Customer Ready to Drive?
For international renters, a confirmed reservation doesn’t always mean they’re eligible to drive. Earlier checks can help operators catch documentation and payment issues before the customer reaches the counter.
Read More →
ICRS 2027 Opens Call for Papers
The International Car Rental Show seeks session proposals on the business, operational, and technology issues facing car rental operators. Submissions are due Jan. 15.
Read More →
Turo to Launch Vehicle Delivery Service
Turo Delivered will let travelers search for vehicles that hosts can deliver directly to hotels, homes, airports, train stations, and other locations.
Read More →
Palm Beach Airport Code Change Creates Car Rental Distribution Gap
A test of rental searches under the old PBI and new DJT airport codes returned largely different sets of brands and vehicles, highlighting a potential distribution problem for rental operators.
Read More →
U-Save Continues Dominican Republic Expansion with Launch in Punta Cana
The new franchise location builds on U-Save’s existing Santo Domingo operation and will begin taking reservations for October 2026.
Read More →
When AI Books the Rental Car, Who Controls the Sale?
As AI moves from comparing rental rates to completing transactions, operators need to understand how travelers find, interpret, rank, and ultimately see their offers. (Part 2 of 2.)
Read More →
European Booked Car Rental Rates Fell 5%, Results Varied by Country
Ireland, Cyprus, and the United Kingdom saw steep declines, while booked rates rose in Poland and Hungary.
Read More →
Is It Time to Rethink Rental Categories?
As traditional economy and compact cars disappear from the market, longtime rental operator Mike DeLorenzo asks whether the industry’s familiar vehicle categories still make sense — and what operators need to rethink along with them.
Read More →