Auto Rental News
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Global Autonomous Vehicle Sales to Reach 33M by 2040

Automakers should be able to increase global sales of fully autonomous vehicles to 33 million by 2040 from 51,000 in 2021 — the first year of significant volume, according to a forecast from IHS Markit.

by Staff
January 3, 2018
Global Autonomous Vehicle Sales to Reach 33M by 2040

Photo of autonomous Chevrolet Volt courtesy of Cruise Automation.

2 min to read


Photo of autonomous Chevrolet Volt courtesy of Cruise Automation.

Automakers should be able to increase global sales of fully autonomous vehicles to 33 million by 2040 from 51,000 in 2021 — the first year of significant volume, according to a forecast from IHS Markit.

There should be 7.4 million autonomous vehicles operating in the U.S. in 2040, the forecast found.

Ad Loading...

This dynamic growth is expected to be enabled by ride hailing and other mobility services, according to the forecast. The U.S. will lead the world in early adoption and initial deployment of the vehicles, which could arrive as early as 2019. Europe and China are expected to add considerable volume starting in 2021.

"The first autonomous vehicle volumes — beyond retrofit test vehicles — will arrive in 2019 through driverless mobility services," said Egil Juliussen, director of automotive technology research at IHS Markit. "Volumes will surpass 51,000 units in 2021 when personally owned autonomous cars reach individual buyers for the first time, and IHS Markit forecasts estimate nearly 1 million units will be sold in 2025 across shared fleets and individually owned cars."

The units will be fully autonomous Level 4 or Level 5 vehicles based on the standard set by the Society of Automotive Engineers.

In the coming years, transportation will be driven by on-demand services rather than the individual ownership model and the industry will provide vehicles based on usage per distance or time rather than unit sales, according to the firm.

General Motors, Waymo, and Uber are expected to contribute significantly to mobility fleet volumes as early as 2019.

Originally posted on Automotive Fleet

More Rental Operations

A tech collage of electronic devices against a computer chip blueprint map.
Rental OperationsMay 1, 2026

Why Car Rental Can No Longer Run On Workarounds

The shift from branch-based software to connected operations is turning rental technology into strategic infrastructure.

Read More →
A tech collage of electronic devices against a computer chip blueprint map.
Rental OperationsMay 1, 2026

Why Car Rental Can No Longer Run On Workarounds

The shift from branch-based software to connected operations is turning rental technology into strategic infrastructure.

Read More →
A black Audi SUV superimposed on a historic scene from downtown Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

Carwiz Sets Up Rental Operations In Central Asia

The global franchise operation reaches a first in its rental fleet portfolio with new service in Uzbekistan.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
A raging brushfire in the countryside.
Rental Operationsby Martin RomjueApril 30, 2026

Where Rental Fleets Must Adjust To Shifting Catastrophe Risks

West Coast disasters pose unique challenges and liabilities for rental fleet operators, who are advised to take steps tailored to their specific situations.

Read More →
ARN Industry Newsmakers thumbnail page with ARN and ICRS logos and shots of Nick DiPrima and Martin Romjue
Rental Operationsby Martin RomjueApril 27, 2026

Using AI To Find Rental Car Damage

Angry car renters are storming social media, the mainstream media, and online ratings platforms to complain about charges they claim are either unfounded or excessive.

Read More →
Photo of CEO Krešimir Dobrilović against a gray modernist crooked-tile mural display.

Carwiz Opens Car Rental Service In Panama

A Carwiz partner in Puerto Rico is taking on the Panama franchise with operations in the nation's largest airport.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
A world map with Flexways logo and new locations headline.

Flexways Opens 10 Locations Among Franchise, Affiliate Rental Networks

The integrated business model combines each operator’s local expertise with international standards to boost sales.

Read More →
Photo of a suitcase, passport, and smartphone.

Traveler Customer Satisfaction Up This Year Data Study Shows

The study looks at customer analytics to size up performance in car rentals, rideshare, airlines, lodging, and OTAs.

Read More →
A rental car between two placards showing a symbolic revenue increase from $300 to $1600.

New Consulting Company Ready To Boost Point-of-Sale Revenue

Revcuity, an outgrowth of Frontline Performance Group, aims to help clients capture more revenue moments with face-to-face customers, including in the car rental space.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Martin Romjue stands at conference stage podium close to a dangling, glistening chandelier.
Rental Operationsby StaffApril 15, 2026

Meet The (Semi-New) ARN Editor

Martin Romjue has been editing and reporting for ARN since 2023 and fully transitioned to the role of chairman of the International Car Rental Show in 2026.

Read More →
Ad Loading...