Flight Capacity Rebounds, but Full Recovery not Expected until 2023

American Airlines Group is planning to fly more than 55% of its July 2019 domestic capacity in July 2020, the company shared in a news announcement. American’s average daily passenger numbers rose from about 32,000 in April to over 110,000 in May.

However, Delta has announced an 85% reduction in its second quarter schedule, which include reductions of 80% in U.S. domestic capacity and 90% internationally.

Delta is suspending flights to smaller airports beginning June 8. The affected airports are:

Aspen, CO (ASE), Bangor, ME (BGR), Erie, PA (ERI), Flint, MI (FNT), Fort Smith, AR (FSM), Lincoln, NE (LNK), New Bern/Morehead/Beaufort, NC (EWN), Peoria, IL (PIA), Santa Barbara, CA (SBA), Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, PA (AVP), and Williston, ND (XWA).

Additionally, Delta is indefinitely suspending service to Ottawa International Airport, effective June 21.

On a month-to-month basis, trends are improving. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said last Wednesday that the company plans to operate twice as many domestic flights in July as it did in May, most from Delta’s Atlanta hub.

United plans to operate at about 30% of its domestic capacity compared with a year earlier. The carrier will reinstate flights at over 150 of its U.S and Canadian destinations next month, according to NPR.

While Delta and United have started resuming some overseas flights, international business traffic is expected to be the slowest area to rebound. American is flying less than 20% of last year’s international schedule and has delayed resumption of additional foreign routes by at least a month.

According to the Bloomberg report, Moody’s Investors Service predicts “severely depressed” demand for flights next year and no substantial recovery until 2023.

Owing to improved travel fundamentals, shares of Hertz Global (HTZ) were up 28.11% before the market opened on Monday June 8, and shares are close to their pre-bankruptcy levels.

Avis Budget Group (CAR) is 6.55% higher and up 130% for the last six weeks, according to Seeking Alpha. Shares of CAR are only down 2.51% year to date.